The Simplified Investor

I know what you’re thinking - why invest in Apple when its stock price fell 18% today? But think literally about apples, which you’ll find in any outdoor fruit stand on the streets of New York. Today, our sadly ineffective government failed to pass its so-called “bailout” plan. The meaning is clear - our economy is going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better. People are going to be out of their jobs (some estimate as many as 6 million Americans will soon be unemployed) - so saddle up the push cart, hit the pavement, and get ready to earn a living one apple at a time.

September 29, 2008 Vote, U.S. House of Representatives

What happened today was historic, and the market knew it. $1.2 trillion was erased from the market value of American stocks as frightened investors fled for the safety of gold and government Treasury bonds. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 777 points, the largest one day decline since the index was first published in 1896. The S&P 500 fell almost 9%, a drop not seen in two decades. Meanwhile, Wachovia Bank was bought by Citigroup for $1 a share, making it just the latest financial institution to surrender in a fear-driven downward spiral that has crushed venerable institutions like Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, and Washington Mutual in recent weeks.

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On Tuesday, Deutsche Telekom AG unveiled the first smart phone that will use Google’s new Android operating system.  The device is called the G1, sold by Deutsche Telekom’s subsidiary T-Mobile, and it looks a lot like the iPhone and other competing smart phones (well, except for the Google logo on the back).  But its the software, not the hardware, that T-Mobile and Google hope will set this new product apart. It will need to be special to crack the dominance of RIMM’s Blackberry and Apple’s iPhone in the smart phone market.  Those two companies controlled a combined 65% of the market in 2008, ahead of a long list of competitors that also includes PALM, Motorola, LG, and Samsung.

Smart Phone Market Share as of May 2008

But smart phone users are savvy folks, and they’re looking for devices that will make life more efficient, and more enjoyable.  That’s where the cache of Google’s brand name comes in.  But will Android work as promised?  And, importantly, what effect will this new product have on the earnings (and stock prices) of Google, Deutsche Telekom, and the other companies involved in the cell phone industry?
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As the WSJ reported today, the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the sale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America is just the latest chapter in a stunning redesign of the financial world.  Stand-alone investment banks are dying rapid deaths, with three down in 2008 already (who can forget the spectacular demise of Bear Stearns?).  In their place, a new king is rising - commercial banks.

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The government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will have far-reaching economic effects.  For example, hedge funds that bet against the two companies have already seen windfall profits as the stock prices of both companies plummeted over the weekend, while the financial institutions that invested in the nearly $5 trillion in mortgages and mortgage-backed securities that FNM and FRE guarantee can breathe a sigh of relief.  The government bailout should help avoid a global financial crisis - but it might not help all of the Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) that depend on loans from Fannie and Freddie to finance their growth.

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The problems plaguing the Big Three American auto makers in 2008 have been well-documented.  The push for flashy SUVs that guzzle gas but impress at the suburban strip mall caused Ford, GM, and Daimler to shift production towards these bigger cars, but these divisions have become huge drains on profits in recent quarters.  Consumers have responded to the explosion of oil and gas prices and stopped buying trucks and sport utility vehicles, looking instead toward more fuel-efficient and hybrid vehicles.

Europe drank the renewable energy Kool-Aid long before it reached America, and the big car companies have already focused their European and international production on smaller cars that consume less gasoline.  As the global economy sags, these economical cars have continued to sell, and results abroad have been the lone bright spot for Ford, GM, and lower-profile players in the auto manufacturing industry.
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