The Simplified Investor

Last week, things looked bleak for equity investors. As the Dow Jones and S&P 500 slid to historic lows, and the TED spread soared to a historic high (more on that below), it looked to many like the thing to do was pull out of stocks entirely, and enter safer assets like gold, T-bills, and steady bank savings accounts. But on Monday, the market bounced, led by the news that the U.S. government will invest up to $250 billion to shore up the U.S. banking system in a plan similar to measures taken by several European powers, including Germany and the U.K.
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On Tuesday, Deutsche Telekom AG unveiled the first smart phone that will use Google’s new Android operating system.  The device is called the G1, sold by Deutsche Telekom’s subsidiary T-Mobile, and it looks a lot like the iPhone and other competing smart phones (well, except for the Google logo on the back).  But its the software, not the hardware, that T-Mobile and Google hope will set this new product apart. It will need to be special to crack the dominance of RIMM’s Blackberry and Apple’s iPhone in the smart phone market.  Those two companies controlled a combined 65% of the market in 2008, ahead of a long list of competitors that also includes PALM, Motorola, LG, and Samsung.

Smart Phone Market Share as of May 2008

But smart phone users are savvy folks, and they’re looking for devices that will make life more efficient, and more enjoyable.  That’s where the cache of Google’s brand name comes in.  But will Android work as promised?  And, importantly, what effect will this new product have on the earnings (and stock prices) of Google, Deutsche Telekom, and the other companies involved in the cell phone industry?
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As the WSJ reported today, the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the sale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America is just the latest chapter in a stunning redesign of the financial world.  Stand-alone investment banks are dying rapid deaths, with three down in 2008 already (who can forget the spectacular demise of Bear Stearns?).  In their place, a new king is rising - commercial banks.

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It’s been years since AMD has been a leader in any market. First, it challenged Intel in the battle for semiconductor supremacy - and lost, badly, watching helplessly as Intel’s superior technology reached 75% dominance of the microprocessor market by 2007. As Intel surged, AMD swooned, and made a fateful decision to diversify its business. The purchase of ATI Technologies in 2006 burdened the books to the tune of $5.6B - and investors punished the stock, which has dropped nearly 90% in the two years since.

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In the health insurance industry, the margin for error is slim.   Companies like WellPoint (NYSE:WLP) and UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) must pay particular attention to a single metric that separates the winners and losers in this massive market.  This statistic is the benefits expense ratio - also called the medical loss ratio - simply, the cost of providing health care to members divided by the revenues from the premiums paid by these members.

Benefits expense ratio, WLP and Competitors

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Given the sorry state of the market these days, lots of investors are looking for so-called “recession-proof” investments - companies that will perform consistently in bull runs and bear markets to keep their money secure.  What better place to look than a company that dedicates itself to safekeeping?  Iron Mountain (NYSE:IRM) helps customers store and discard paper documents securely.  In effect, this means driving a van to a customer’s location, filling it with documents in boxes that IRM has sold to its customers, then driving them to a secure location to be retrieved when the company needs them, or shredded when the docs have outlived their usefulness.
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Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) reported earnings today - and for the 69th straight quarter, the airline turned a profit. Its quarterly net income increased 15% from a year ago, to $321 million. These results are worth a closer look, considering the rest of the major airlines lost a combined $6 billion in the second quarter. How does Southwest stay in the black as the rest of its peers bleed red? The secret - it hedges its fuel prices better than anyone in the business

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It seems curious at first when a bank reports losses of $9B, as Wachovia (NYSE:WB) did today, and its stock price isn’t punished. It’s even more counter-intuitive when the company’s stock price goes up, as it did after Wachovia said it lost $8.9B in the second quarter of 2008. Despite the sour news, Wachovia was up over in 15% this afternoon on the New York Stock Exchange. Why are investors rewarding the beat-up bank with a share price boost? A closer look at Wachovia’s recent history helps solve the WB mystery and explains why its investors are still riding high.

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